Smart money still says Tiger

Originally Published: April 5, 2005

ESPN.com/Golf Digest

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AUGUSTA, Ga. – FACT: With a successful defense of his Masters title, Phil Mickelson can claim two wins in a six-day span.

FICTION: Mickelson is the favorite to win at Augusta National, the site of his first career major victory.

Nope, that honor once again goes to a man named Eldrick, as our panel of experts contends in The Masters edition of Fact or Fiction.

	Tiger Woods">
	Woods

Tiger Woods is the favorite to win his fourth green jacket.

Bob Harig, contributor, ESPN.com: FACT. Woods is almost always the favorite at Augusta, and this year is no different, even if he is coming off two very shaky performances at Bay Hill and the Players Championship. But given his two victories this year, his strong form since the end of last season, his obvious advantages at Augusta National and the fact that he has been pointing toward this, there is no reason not to make him the favorite.

Jason Sobel, golf editor, ESPN.com: FACT. But he's not as much of a favorite as he's been in, oh, the previous seven Masters Tournaments. Perhaps the world hasn't caught up to Woods, but at least a few players have and Mickelson, Vijay Singh and Ernie Els have as much a chance of winning as Tiger.

Brian Wacker, assistant editor, GolfDigest.com: FACT. Not only have oddsmakers installed Tiger as the betting favorite, but Woods is again swinging the club well enough to win. The real key, however, will be his putting. If he putts well at Augusta, expect Mickelson to be slipping the green jacket on him come Sunday night.

Ron Sirak, executive editor, Golf World magazine: FACT. But that doesn't mean he should have his tailor on standby for Sunday. Woods will be involved in a dramatic conclusion at Augusta National, and then he will watch Mickelson helpAdam Scott into his first green jacket.

	Mickelson

The players who competed until Monday at the BellSouth will be at a disadvantage in Augusta.

Sobel: FACT. Hmmm ... a painless practice round spent smiling for cameras and kissing babies? Or a full-blown gut check that needed extra holes? Yes, we're talking specifically about Mickelson, who played 22 holes on Monday in earning his third victory of the year, but certainly won't be rested and relaxed coming to Augusta.

Wacker: FICTION. It's only a few hours drive from TPC-Sugarloaf to Augusta, and if you're Mickelson it's an even shorter ride when you hop on your private jet. If BellSouth officials had decided to play a full 72 holes – meaning a 36-hole finish on Monday – it might have been more of a factor, but the day will more or less amount to just another practice round, albeit on a different course.

Sirak: FICTION. The only ones who will be at a disadvantage are the ones who are not mentally tough enough to separate the bad luck of bad weather from their preparations for The Masters. And those guys didn't have a chance to win anyway.

Harig: FICTION. It might even be a help, if they view the situation properly. Trying to play practice rounds at Augusta National on the three days leading up to the tournament can be an exercise in frustration. The course is crowded and filled with spectators, unlike at any other tournament. The rounds are long, and it is tough to truly get in good practice. A tournament round on Monday away from Augusta, followed by some rest and limited practice at the course, could be a big help.

If I could win any major, it would be The Masters.

Sirak: FICTION. The British Open is the most complete test of golf that exists. In addition to shot-making ability, it explores the psychological makeup of a player in a most devious way, testing how he can handle bad bounces, bad weather and bad food. Besides, wouldn't you want your name on a trophy that you can not only drink champagne out of, but on which there is both Old Tom and Young Tom?

Wacker: FICTION. I'd have to say the U.S. Open. Nothing against The Masters, British Open or the PGA Championship, but to win your country's national championship would mean the most. It's the toughest brand of golf you'll ever see – even if it's not always necessarily the purest test – and it is still a bit of an everyman's tournament.

Harig: FICTION. Most players would take any major and not complain. But if given the choice ... you have to go with the Open Championship. It is the oldest of all golf tournaments, played on courses that have been around for 100 years or more. It is the true world championship of golf.

Sobel: FICTION. The Masters would be nice, but the U.S. Open is the nation's championship. I love the romantic notion that anyone in the country – if they play well enough – can theoretically win the Open ... or maybe I've just seen "Tin Cup" one too many times. Besides, I couldn't pull off the whole green jacket look.

Bonus question: Who will win The Masters?

Harig: ERNIE ELS. After the anguish of a year ago, Els will bounce back to claim his first green jacket.

Wacker: TIGER WOODS. The playing field is a lot more level these days with Mickelson, Woods, Els, Singh and Retief Goosen all playing well coming into Augusta, but when all is settled it will be Woods who putts the best to win his fourth career green jacket.

Sobel: ERNIE ELS. Augusta National is a magical place and Els needs a little fate to intervene on his side after falling short in each of the four majors a year ago. Here's saying Ernie gets some to complete the foursome with green jackets among the elite in the World Ranking.

Sirak: ADAM SCOTT. The young Aussie will get done what the Great White Shark left unfinished as Scott will bring home the green jacket Greg Norman left behind.

Atricles Course: http://golfatn.blogspot.com/